2004 Predictions - Were they accurate?

In 2004 we made predictions about the pharmaceutical industry.  We examine how we did.

Lack of products would drive consolidation – we thought that companies would fail and disappear; instead they were either bought or purchased more fortunate companies which had a pipeline of products.  So true.

Score 8/10

Biotech – In 2004 this sector existed as a large field of small, start up, research companies.  We saw then developing products in their own right and naively saw them growing in their own right.  In reality those that actually had products were bought by traditional companies.  We missed the subtleties of the difficulties of creating generic biosimilars and hence the longer period of monopoly priced sales that biotech products gave.

Score 2/10

Large multinationals would become development and marketing companies, using their financial clout to sell products acquired by others.

Pfizer is the epitome of a company that has used the cash pile from now off patent products to acquire other companies, initially for products and later, unsuccessfully to escape the US tax regime.

Score 7/10